Tag Archives: iPhone

Standard

Posted by

Posted on

February 2, 2013

Posted under

Digital Lifestyle

Blackberry will be a strong 3rd, and it won’t matter

So the company once known as “Research in Motion” has finally played its hand, and the reviews are mixed.

Personally, I side with Goldman Sachs and I’ve tweeted as much – I truly believe that Blackberry will be a strong 3rd in the smartphone market.  And I’m going to attempt to explain why.

When people think of RIM and its long slide from #1 in its industry, they instinctively think of Nortel – another Canadian tech darling that rode at the top of its industry, but now exists as a small part of a larger patent portfolio.  Management issues aside, both companies found themselves in a position of increased competition and eventually lost much of their perceived relevance.

Yet, I still believe strongly in Blackberry’s prospects – on the mobility side at least.  Part of that is of their own doing, the rest is a function of their industry.

Industry first.  Blackberry’s competition consists of Android, iPhone and Windows Phone.  And while you can argue the finer points of who has executed most impressively with respect to O/S, ecosystem and application offerings, you can’t deny that each company manufacturers a smartphone experience that is starkly different from the others.  Apple’s iOS devices offer a curated, walled garden.  Windows Phone, a less-curated walled garden but a very polarizing user interface with strict design guidelines.  Android represents the wild-west of the smartphone industry; no restrictions, and vendor-specific customizations.

Each platform offers a modern version of a smartphone operating system.  Each platform is supported by an application and media ecosystem – arguably of differing sizes and content quality, but the infrastructure is there.  So on the face of it, you have four competing products and solutions, all of which represent the state of the art in the smartphone space, all of which offer distinctive user experiences.

That being said, Blackberry no longer needs to compete on specifications alone, or price alone.  They’ve differentiated sufficiently on standout, unique features – Blackberry Hub, Blackberry Balance, Blackberry Peek, an interesting take on the homescreen – that they have a compelling offering in BB10.  Note that I’m not saying that these are good features; just different.

That’s the industry that Blackberry is playing in.  And it’s fortunate that they’re not aiming to take on iPhone or Android, because they honestly have no chance of gaining any signficant market share from those competitors.  However I do believe that they stand a very strong chance of stealing market share from Windows Phone – and that comes down to the Blackberry name and legacy.

My evidence is subjective.  iPhone and Android are considered the gold standards when it comes to smartphones and app stores, yet I’m still surprised that I continue to see people clinging to their older Blackberry devices.  Meanwhile, Microsoft has a 1 1/2 year head-start on Blackberry yet they’ve failed to establish themselves as a bona-fide 3rd.

What is it about Blackberry that inspires so much loyalty?

I don’t have the answer, and while I’m under no allusion that the suggestion of loyalty  is enough to bring the masses flocking, I can’t deny that there’s something compelling about the Waterloo-based company’s iconic products.  I never see a Windows Mobile phone in public – why so many BB7 (and older) devices?

But the real question is – is it enough to convert BB7 (and older) users to BB10?  Will that be enough to pull Blackberry out of its slump?  Will users that have eschewed iOS and Android for Windows Phone, instead jump ship again to BB10?

Realistically, the long-term prospects for the company are still questionable.  And unfortunately, it does appear to be a result of the amount of time that it took for RIM to finally get its act together.  While I have no doubt that BB10 can trounce Windows Phone in the smartphone marketplace, the real truth is that Microsoft is quite happy to lose money on Windows Phone if necessary in order to push its presence in that space – with the intention of promoting its vertically-integrated solutions.  Blackberry, meanwhile, has no worthwhile consumer business outside of Blackberry mobile phones – in that respect it’s truly make-or-break on BB10.  Meanwhile, their enterprise business is not the behemoth it once was:

  • It has come under intense competitive pressure due to the BYOD movement
  • It has been scrutinized due to recent service outages
  • It doesn’t have the same brand loyalty that exists in the consumer market

Consider the news of changes to service fees, and it becomes more obvious that Blackberry’s traditional revenue streams are drying up as a result of the industry shifting more towards generic, data-centric service plans.  I imagine they’ll even have an increasingly-tough time hocking their BES software, despite the ability to manage iPhone and Android devices, as any potential customer must realize the obvious conflict of interest: that Blackberry would rather you use their software to manage their devices while they also collect on BES service plans.  Why go with Blackberry’s enterprise software if alternatives exist from vendors with no vested interest in the end-user devices they purport to manage?  Who wants to hitch their wagon to the horse that left them behind the pack for such a long time?

Okay, so why is Blackberry a “buy”?  And why do I agree with Goldman Sachs?

Because the company still has value.  And having brought their consumer side out of the doldrums, they have arguably more value than they did 12 months ago.  They’ll probably see mildy-impressive sales of BB10 devices after launch.  They will inevitably report strong earnings for a quarter or two, perhaps longer.  They’ll beat expectations.  And around the same time they’ll plateau as they struggle to gain more market share.  They may divest Enterprise.  There may be more layoffs.  And their rating will change to “sell”, and investors will make their quick buck.  What of Blackberry after that?  Who Knows(tm).

Which brings us to the second part of this article’s title.  Blackberry will be a strong 3rd, but they’ll either maintain that position as a smaller, more streamlined version of their current selves or – more likely – they will attain that position and then find themselves in the same boat as Palm in the not-too-distant future.  There simply isn’t enough market share to support their continued existence as the RIM we’ve always known.  Even if Apple releases a new iPhone with the same stale iOS, it will only take them one product cycle to rectify that problem.  Microsoft will not go away and will not concede significant market share.  Android will not cede market share, particularly as Google continues to push its software and hardware agenda.

I simply don’t see the version of reality playing out that has Blackberry being a content, distant third in the smartphone space, gaining no significant market share while giving investors a continuing return on their investment.  And that’s a shame, because I truly believe that Blackberry is an innovative company with a compelling legacy and the technical know-how to create good devices.

Ultimately, we’ll see if I’m wrong.  Considering that I’m no expert in this field, I can naively hope that I will be wrong.

Standard

Posted by

Posted on

December 3, 2010

Posted under

Digital Lifestyle

Comments

2 Comments

Tablets – ready for (my) primetime? [updated 01/27/12]

I’ve heard a yearning for a tablet for a long time.  I made a (misguided) foray into the world of pen computers, scoring a used device on eBay some number of years ago.  Suffice it to say that that particular puppy hasn’t seen the light of day in some time.

The iPad is now all the rage.  And while I understand the allure of the device, and the particular niche it fulfills, the more I look at the iPad for my intended purpose the more I’m realizing that there are way too many shortcomings to even consider dropping $600+ on the thing.  And unfortunately, the same goes for the Samsung Galaxy Tab, the current champ in the non-Apple tablet world.

Here’s the thing.  I’m not looking for a device to carry around with me.  That’s what a smartphone is for.  Which isn’t to say that I wouldn’t want to travel with the tablet; rather, it would tend to “live” mostly at home.  So I’m not particularly adverse to the 10″ form factor; weight may be an issue, but if we’re talking solely about “portability” then there’s nothing wrong with 10″.

Now, I decided a long time ago that every portable device deserves a wireless connection.  I didn’t spend long with my Compaq iPAQ 3630 before an expansion sleeve and PCMCIA WiFi card were ordered.  Fortunately, any modern computing device worth its silicon has a myriad of wireless connectivity options – one of which is “3G”.  The carriers love to push this, as more 3G-toting users means more revenue.  But again, given that my intended use for a tablet is for home use, I’m pretty sure I can get by with WiFi – and tether to my smartphone whenever truly mobile connectivity is needed.

So what of these shortcomings?  I’m getting to that.  And in order to get to that, I have to talk about the fact that these devices are actually quite capable little devices.  The Tab, in particular, feels very powerful to me.  It screams “computer” much more than the iPad, and that’s not a bad thing.  It does its job so well, in fact, that I’m chomping at the bit to cram an Android smartphone into a pant pocket.  As a mobile platform, I must say that Android is getting it done quite nicely.

The iPad, on the other hand, still comes off as a large toy.  I just can’t shake the feeling.  Sure, you can run cool apps, but I’m not looking to run cool apps at home.  My home needs for a tablet are quite modest – surf the web, control my home automation systems, check email.  It really doesn’t have to get more complex than that.

And in that vein, the Tab also falls short.  Every time I pick up a Tab I feel like I should be putting it in my pocket and carrying it around with me for the entire day.  This is not a feeling I want to get from a device that’s supposed to live on the living room table.  I think that Samsung is intending the tab to be a mobile, portable device – but that’s not the niche that I want it to fill.

Then there are more tangible shortcomings – like the complete and utter lack of multi-user support.  Some of the coolest things you can do with the iPad and Tab come from using the native apps, which are the most pure reflections of what the manufacturer intended you to use the device for.  And some apps, like email, are very personal in nature – do I want some house guest to pick up my tablet and start reading my email?

And so… I’m conflicted.  On a few fronts.  I don’t like Apple’s walled garden, but I think I do like the 10″ form factor.  I like Android’s utility, but I don’t want/need my tablet to be that powerful.  So what am I saying, really?

One, is that none of the tablets on the market now are going to get the job done for me.  I mean, I’d take either one if I won it (though I’d probably sell the iPad), but there’s no way I’m paying $600+.

Two, is that I know what I need:

  • multi-touch interface
  • capacitive touchscreen
  • tabbed browser with Flash support

I think I’d like a capable built-in media player, but I do not want to store media on the device.  Not even pictures.  Any media should be streamed over the network  – perhaps using UPnP or DLNA.  And while I’m not adverse to accessing a marketplace and running other native/3rd-party apps, I think that this capability must go hand-in-hand with the some sort of fast-user-switching ala Windows XP Home.

Until these criteria are met, I may find myself sitting on the sidelines of the tablet game.

[update 2011/08/30]

Interesting article from Engadget, questioning the tablet’s position as a productivity device and the real necessity for a “third device”.  At this point I really wish I had scored a $99 TouchPad – not quite “taking one if I won it” that I mentioned above, but close enough.  Oh well, so it goes.  I figured I could move run an Android port on it as soon as that technical feat was accomplished.  Surely it wouldn’t be long, right?  But something strange happened when I played with a TouchPad in-store for 30 minutes or so, followed by a couple of Honeycomb tablets – I was far more impressed with WebOS than Honeycomb.  In fact, Honeycomb felt like the cross between a media device and a mobile computer that I alluded to earlier in this post, to the point that the promised functionality belied the limitations of the device (reported so well in that Engadget article).  I suppose that experience reaffirmed an earlier tweet I had made that WebOS on a tablet would be killer.  It’s unfortunate that software support will be lacking though; I did note some issues with the native web browser, and it’s very questionable how timely updates would come out (if at all) to address such issues.  If a port of Honeycomb or even Gingerbread ever surfaced for TouchPad, then certainly updates would be frequent – but again, Honeycomb felt like an entirely different beast, with WebOS wearing the tablet pants much better than Honeycomb.

So it seems that not much has changed.  My requirements still remain the same – multitouch with tabbed browsing and Flash support.  If anything, I’m now more convinced of the things that I don’t want – ie, a tablet with a complex interface.  Keep It Simple Stupid.

Even the multi-user conundrum has a workable solution on WebOS.  Firstly, I imagine that the only player who will solve this problem outright is Microsoft with Windows 8.  And I already know that such a tablet will be insanely expensive and too powerful for the light duty I’d want it to perform.  Secondly, a tablet’s increased real-estate means that visiting webpages is a very practical alternative to running the dedicated app (think Facebook, Gmail, etc).  Thirdly, I’m not of the mind that – even at $99 – it makes sense for a household to have multiple tablets for the sole purpose of casual usage; quite simply, it’s an unnecessary indulgence and a real distraction.

So how is the conundrum solved?  Whether through fast-user switching (ala Windows) or actively logging in/out, the fact is that a multi-user system requires a user to reauthenticate and “unlock” the device.  Now, if you’re working on a tablet that’s little more than a casual media consumption device, I can imagine that it’s enough to do this un/lock dance on a per-“app” basis.  And the ability to login and logout is something that every website application presents as a matter of course, but no native tablet app presents as a matter of course.  Many people are probably used to doing so within their web browsers.  So right there, the “requirement” to run the web version of your “productivity” apps – and crucially, the ability to do so on a generously-sized screen – means that you don’t have to worry about somebody sticking their nose into your private data.

But here’s where WebOS shines.  If I’ve got a video open on the family tablet, or a series of webpages – neither of which are “private” – then somebody else can pick up the tablet, stack my open apps, and open their own apps and webpages.  And so you end up with a shared user space, where each user’s resources are sitting in their own stack.  When I want to use the tablet and restore the state of my “apps”, I stack all other apps and unstack mine.  And finally, since we’re talking about a simple tablet here, I can imagine that each stack would only be a handful of cards deep – ie, very manageable for both user and system.  I certainly wouldn’t have 10-15 apps open simultaneously like I tend to do on a desktop computer.

I’ll say it – it’s unfortunate that TouchPad went from overpriced at $500 to unsupported at $100.  A happy medium may very well have been $150-200.  Here’s to hoping that WebOs lives on and that somebody picks up the hardware mantle.  Certainly everybody has seen that there’s demand for a non-iPad tablet at a lower price point?  It doesn’t have to compete with iPad; rather it just needs to fill the niche that the $99 fire-sale flushed out.

[update 2012/01/27]

Well well well…

That may change things.